Ownership effect on benefits from woodland expansion

Summary Description:

Despite afforestation over the last 100 years, woodland cover in Scotland remains low in both a historical and European context. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment provided evidence that over 60% of ecosystem services (ES) are currently being degraded/used unsustainably (MEA, 2005), and biodiversity loss continues, with over 18% of species and 33% of habitats thought to have been lost in Scotland  (Hughes and Brookes, 2009). In addition, the challenge of climate change means that species are struggling to adapt, and there is increasing need for mitigation through carbon sequestration, with afforestation being seen as an important way to achieve this. At the same time, there is increasing debate over land reform in Scotland and the implementation of the Scottish Land Use Strategy which aims for responsible stewardship of Scotland’s natural resources to deliver more benefits to Scotland’s people (Scottish Government, 2011).

These challenges present an opportunity to evaluate the impact of previous woodland expansion on ES (Thomas et al. 2015), by assessing how ES vary in different contexts and what trade-offs exist between woodland and other land uses. The recent growth and improvement in methods to quantify ES (ES indicators) means that there is an excellent opportunity to make use of new tools for ES evaluation which have not been used before.

The following research questions will be addressed in the course of this four year PhD:

1. What has been the impact of woodland expansion on ES to date?
2. How do key woodland ES vary under different ownership and governance types?
3. What types of ownership and governance are most effective for achieving woodland expansion and provision of ES?
4. What are the synergies and trade-offs between woodland ES and ES from other land uses?
5. What are the most sustainable and resilient models of ownership and governance for achieving woodland expansion and provision of ES given alternative climate change and socio-economic scenarios?
    

Project Outcomes:

Key findings

A systematic review of evidence for the effects of woodland expansion on biodiversity and ecosystem services in a UK context found that evidence gaps need to be filled in relation to a broader consideration of taxa and metrics for biodiversity, natural regeneration of native woodland, and effects on cultural and provisioning ecosystem services.

A mixed-method approach involving stakeholders resulted in five distinct ‘visions’ for how woodland expansion might ideally take place.  This approach found that there is a great deal of common ground in terms of the high level ‘public goods which could be delivered by woodland expansion. Funding for woodland to provide these public goods was a widely shared view. However, there were important distinctions in how stakeholders saw visions being achieved, particularly in terms of the development of Land Reform and Community Empowerment.

An agent-based modelling (ABM) framework was adapted to describe a new model, CRAFTY-Scotland. The elicited visions were represented within the model, in order to explore the ecosystem service implications and likelihood of meeting Scottish government targets for woodland expansion.

CRAFTY-Scotland is a spatial model of Scotland representing the diversity of land managers with different objectives and values, as well as suitability for different land uses (e.g. tree species suitability, capability for agriculture). Findings suggest that ABM offers a useful method for exploring normative visions, considering multiple ecosystem services and quantifying trade-offs between non-economic values.

Results from the model suggest that woodland expansion has the potential to have broadly positive effects on ecosystem services, with synergies for timber and crop production, employment, carbon storage and flood management, and trade-offs identified for aspects of biodiversity (floral species richness) and recreation.

The broad land use types most impacted by increasing woodland cover are extensive grasslands and heathlands, which showed decline in most visions. The willingness of land managers owning these habitats to diversify and include new woodland as part of their portfolio is a key threshold which affects likelihood of meeting the Scottish Government targets of 21% by 2032 and 25% by 2050.

Governance strategies which could facilitate success for woodland expansion include annualised payments for the public goods provided by woodlands, efforts to diversify land management (whether this comes through Land Reform or diversification within larger land holdings), combined with empowering local communities with increased access to funding and resources.

 

Conclusions

The potential and method of implementation for increased woodland cover in Scotland depends strongly on land manager and societal attitudes to changes to ‘traditional’ or currently widespread forms of land use.

Well-designed approaches which engage with multiple stakeholders and aim to provide annualised support could be effective in supporting woodland expansion objectives.

The results suggest that different modelled pathways affect the ability to reach targets for woodland expansion, and the extent to which ecosystem service synergies and trade-offs occur. There are potentially powerful synergies between several core Scottish government aims encompassing woodland expansion, Land Reform, and Community Empowerment. This highlights potentially exciting research avenues linking woodland expansion to small forest enterprises and prosperity.

Given the urgent need to move towards sustainable land use in the face of multiple challenges, linking societal visions to models in research approaches which engage society with science and encourage futures thinking have great potential.